Financial Express:
At Cross Roads Once Again…
BSE Sensex: (6362.76)
3.12.04
'No high is high and no low is low' is the catch word that caught my eye many years ago when I started to learn Technical Analysis…little did I know then that a day will come when I would be asked to write a piece as to what will the market do when it has ventured into the Virgin Blue Sky territory…a territory where it has never traded before…
Technical Analysis is a science and the art is in the interpretation of it…to me the markets are technically perfect…it has appointments to keep with time and space and come what may…I may sound a bit arrogant here but then to me Technical Analysis is a science…and I respect it as such…
When we have a past history o work with then we do know as to what to expect from that past as the path ahead becomes clearer but here we are engaged in activity where the Bombay Sensex is trading in an uncharted virgin territory…Today the Sensex has reached a new high of 6361.53 but what now is the big questions…
We are at cross roads once again and this morning I was taken aback when the TV host of a popular business channel asked where do you think the market will turn? I responded by saying that it would be very arrogant of me if I said that the market will turn at so and so point because Market is dynamic in nature and is 'Supreme' and it humiliates each of us every day in our very own little way…amen…
The Sensex has seen a all time high at 6150.69 on 14th February 2000 and that was before the great IT bubble bust… and then we saw a low of 2594.87 on 21st September 2001 after 585 days…and that was just 10 days after the infamous 9/11 attack and the day 'terror' struck America…the world was in a state of shock but the market bounced back just 10 days after the attack…and mind you it was a technical bounce as the low was a good low on technical parameters…the market then struggled for a while to find a bottom at 2904.44 on 28.4.2003…embarking on a new journey the up move then followed to find a new top at 6249.60 on 09.01.04 a climb of 3246 points in 256 days…the market then yo-yoed again to find a strong technical low once again on the Black Friday on 17.05.2004 at 4227.50..incidently 4227.50 is also a strong technical low on my parameters….but what now is the big question here, as the market has gained 2134 points to reach this new high of 6361.53 today? Well, the answer is simple and that a new technical resistance has to found where the market has the potential to turn…and this too has to be a technical top…
To me there are technical tuning points in the markets and there are technical pressure days to work with …
The next Technical pressure points to watch in the market are 6503 then 6724 then 6821 and then 7008…
The next Technical pressure points to watch in the market on the Nifty front are 2031 then 2145 then 2169 and 2342 and then 2367…
The Pressure days in the days to come where the market has the potential to turn is 4-5 and 6th December 2004. Incidentally as we write this column…4 and 5th are Holidays and the next immediate pressure date is 6th December 2004…and the next Pressure day where the market has the potential to turn in the year 2005 is 06.05.2005…the million dollar question now is…Will the market turn on these pressure points and on these pressure days? The answer can never be a simple 'Yes' or a simple 'No' because these 'points' have to be interrogated afresh after these swing highs and these swing lows are made for what is know the THIRD unknown dimension…until then the best thing to do is trade the market and not the forecast…and if we find some weakness at these pressure points then the thing to do is to ACT…until then…
Happy Trading
Prakash Gaba MSTA ( London)
Will it?
BSE Sensex: (6551)
4.1.2005
In my articles published in the Financial Express on 6.12.2005, I talk about the Potential Turning Points and I quote…
"Technical Analysis is a science and the art is in the interpretation of it…to me the markets are technically perfect…it has appointments to keep with time and space and come what may…I may sound a bit arrogant here but then to me Technical Analysis is a science…and I respect it as such…"
'The next Technical pressure points to watch in the market are 6503 then 6724 then 6821 and then 7008'
"The million dollar question now is…Will the market turn on these pressure points and on these pressure days? The answer can never be a simple 'Yes' or a simple 'No' because these 'points' have to be interrogated afresh after these swing highs and these swing lows are made for what is know the THIRD unknown dimension…until then the best thing to do is trade the market and not the forecast…and if we find some weakness at these pressure points then the thing to do is to ACT"
The Market has seen a high today at 6696.31…we have a very strong resistance at 6700.46…this point 6700.46 is also a strong potential technical turning point like the point 6724 and also a psychological 6700 mark…and like we said that the market has to be interrogated afresh after a swing high or a swing low is made…I have strong reason to believe that the market has seen a high at 6696 and the move looks reactive and if it goes up then it is likely to be 6700 or around 6724…will it? Well only time will tell…meanwhile I would wait for a confirmation and the confirmation will come if the market starts to trade below the 6640 mark…Caution is the order of the day as I said in the Morning Call on CNBC yesterday because to me the upside is limited…Amen
Prakash Gaba
